Key Takeaways

Reading the Vertical Farming Market Size Reports: What’s Real and What’s Noise

February has brought a wave of new market intelligence on the vertical farming industry, and the headline numbers are attention-grabbing. Mordor Intelligence pegs the global vertical farming market size at $7.5 billion in 2026, projecting growth to $18.4 billion by 2031 at a 19.7% compound annual growth rate. Maximize Market Research puts the 2025 baseline at $8 billion and sees a path to $39.7 billion by 2032. Research and Markets lands at $9.54 billion for 2026, forecasting $38.4 billion by 2032 at a 25.5% CAGR.

If you’re confused by the range, you should be. Market research firms define “vertical farming” differently—some include greenhouse technology hardware, others count only fully indoor, multi-layer operations. Some fold in the software and services layer; others don’t. The wide spread between $18 billion and $40 billion in projected 2031–2032 valuations reflects these definitional differences more than genuine disagreement about the industry’s trajectory.

But beneath the methodological noise, the reports converge on a consistent narrative: the vertical farming industry has passed through its most painful correction phase, and the companies that survived are growing on fundamentally different terms than the ones that didn’t.

The Correction That Made These Numbers Possible

It’s worth remembering what happened between the last round of optimistic market projections and this one. In the span of roughly two years, the industry lost Bowery Farming ($700 million raised, $2.3 billion peak valuation, operations halted in late 2024), saw Plenty Unlimited file for Chapter 11 in March 2025 after raising nearly $1 billion, and watched AeroFarms, Kalera, AppHarvest, and Freight Farms all cycle through bankruptcy. According to one industry tracker, fourteen indoor farming and CEA-related bankruptcies occurred in 2025 alone, with combined historical funding across the failed companies exceeding $1.37 billion.

That’s the context that makes the current market data meaningful. When Mordor Intelligence notes that the industry “is now entering a more disciplined phase” where “investment decisions increasingly prioritize profitability, operational efficiency, energy optimization, and long-term offtake agreements over rapid footprint expansion,” they’re describing the scar tissue of a billion-dollar learning experience. Why Vertical Farms Keep Failing — And What the Survivors Are Doing Differently.

The market isn’t growing because the industry figured out how to raise money. It’s growing because the survivors figured out how to make money. The $200 Million Merger: What 80 Acres Farms + Soli Organic Tells Us About the Future of Indoor Farming.

Where the Growth Is Actually Coming From

Drill into the reports and a few patterns stand out.

Leafy Greens Still Dominate—But the Margin Story Is Changing

Leafy greens account for roughly 46–52% of vertical farming revenue, depending on the report. That’s not surprising—lettuce, kale, and herbs have 30- to 45-day crop cycles, stable retail demand, and the ability to absorb energy costs better than longer-cycle fruiting crops. Companies like Gotham Greens (thirteen facilities across the U.S.) and the newly merged 80 Acres Farms/Soli Organic operation (17,000 retail locations) have proven that leafy greens can work at scale when the business model is right. 5 High-Value Crops That Actually Make Money in Vertical Farming.

But the more interesting story is what’s happening at the margins. Berries are now the fastest-growing crop segment, with Mordor Intelligence reporting a 16% CAGR and Maximize Market Research citing even higher growth rates. Oishii’s 237,000-square-foot strawberry facility—selling individual berries at $2.50 each to Whole Foods—has validated that premium pricing can work when flavor consistency justifies the economics. Plenty’s post-bankruptcy pivot to focus exclusively on strawberry production at its Richmond, Virginia facility tells a similar story from a different angle: the company that tried to do everything is now betting its survival on one high-value crop. The Strawberry Revolution: Why Every Vertical Farm Is Pivoting to Berries.

Building-Based Farms Are Winning the Infrastructure Debate

The reports consistently show building-based vertical farms commanding 61–69% of market revenue, with container farms growing quickly but from a smaller base. Building-based operations benefit from centralized utilities, multi-tier rack systems, and the ability to co-locate with distribution infrastructure. Gotham Greens’ rooftop integration model—which reduces last-mile freight costs and secures premium shelf space—exemplifies why building-based farms have structural advantages.

Container farms, meanwhile, are finding their niche in institutional settings—universities, hospitals, military installations, and nonprofit food access programs. The CW Group facility that opened in Connecticut late last year is an instructive example: 4,500 square feet of repurposed industrial space producing 176,000 pounds of leafy greens annually while providing employment opportunities for adults with disabilities. That’s a fundamentally different business case than the venture-scale dreams that drove the last cycle, and it’s the kind of operation that actually pencils out. How to Design an Indoor Farm That Actually Makes Money: Facility Planning Guide.

Geography: North America Leads, Asia-Pacific Accelerates

North America holds roughly 30% of global vertical farming market share, supported by urban demand, retail partnerships, and what remains of the venture capital ecosystem after the correction. The U.S. market alone is estimated at $1.58 billion in 2026 by Mordor Intelligence, with leafy greens maintaining a 52.3% revenue share.

But Asia-Pacific is the faster-growing region. Singapore’s “30 by 30” initiative—aiming to produce 30% of nutritional needs domestically by 2030—has created a policy framework that directly incentivizes indoor farming. Saudi Arabia’s recently opened 20,000-square-meter vertical farm in Riyadh (developed by Mowreq and YesHealth Group, standing 15 meters tall across 19 layers) represents the scale of commitment in the Gulf states, where over 90% of food is imported. The UAE’s National Food Security Strategy 2051, highlighted prominently at Gulfood 2026, continues to drive investment. Food Security in a Climate Crisis: How Indoor Farming Protects Local Supply Chains.

The Technology Stack That’s Enabling the Growth

Two technology trends are consistently cited across the reports as fundamental enablers of the market’s current trajectory.

The first is continuing improvement in LED efficiency and spectral tuning. Lighting hardware represents the single largest share of market value within the vertical farming equipment stack, and incremental gains in photon efficacy have outsized effects on operating economics. Every percentage point of efficiency improvement translates directly into lower electricity costs per pound of produce—and electricity remains the dominant operating expense for fully indoor operations, accounting for up to half of total costs. LED Lighting in 2025: How New Efficiency Gains Are Changing the Economics of Indoor Farming.

The second is the maturation of AI-driven farm management systems. The reports note that proprietary software platforms now integrate data from thousands of sensors and cameras to optimize climate, irrigation, and harvest timing in real time. This isn’t theoretical—companies like AeroFarms (post-bankruptcy, now focused on microgreens and data licensing) and several mid-market operators are using machine learning to reduce resource waste, predict crop readiness, and adjust environmental conditions at the individual plant level. The shift from manual monitoring to algorithmic management is quietly transforming unit economics in ways that don’t make headlines but show up in operating margins. How AI Is Transforming Indoor Farming — From Seed to Shelf.

Aeroponics is also emerging as a growth driver. Mordor Intelligence identifies it as the fastest-growing cultivation method at 16% CAGR through 2031, outpacing the overall market due to higher nutrient-absorption efficiency and shorter crop cycles. While hydroponic systems still dominate (roughly 52% of current market share), the trend toward aeroponic adoption suggests the industry continues to optimize around yield per square foot and resource efficiency. Hydroponics, Aeroponics, or Aquaponics? Choosing the Right Growing System for Your Farm.

What the Reports Don’t Say—But Should

Market reports are useful for establishing the size and trajectory of an industry. They’re less useful for understanding whether individual operations will succeed or fail. A few critical factors that these reports either understate or omit entirely deserve attention.

Energy cost volatility remains the single biggest risk factor for indoor farming profitability. Plenty’s decision to mothball its Compton, California facility in late 2024—citing rising energy costs in the state—is a case study in how quickly the economics can shift based on regional utility pricing. The reports project growth trajectories that assume continued LED efficiency gains and renewable energy integration, but they don’t adequately account for the possibility that electricity prices in key markets could move in the wrong direction. Energy Management Strategies for Indoor Farms: Cutting Your Biggest Cost by 30%.

Off-take agreements are still the make-or-break factor for new facilities. Our industry learned this lesson the hard way: building capacity before securing distribution is a recipe for cash flow disasters. The most successful operations in 2026—Gotham Greens, Little Leaf Farms, the 80 Acres/Soli Organic combination—all built their retail and food service relationships first and then scaled production to meet confirmed demand. Building Your First Indoor Farm: The Off-Take Agreement Mistake That Kills Most Projects.

The vendor-model versus operator-model question is unresolved. Just Vertical’s CW Group project in Connecticut represents a vendor-led approach—sell the technology and let independent operators run the farms. The Plenty/Bowery model of vertically integrated, high-capex operations clearly struggled. Whether the industry’s future looks more like selling turnkey systems or operating them directly is still an open question, and the market reports don’t differentiate between these fundamentally different business models.

What This Means for Growers and Investors

The convergence of multiple market reports around a $7.5–$8 billion current valuation and a growth trajectory toward $18–$40 billion by the early 2030s tells us something important: the vertical farming industry has survived its existential crisis and entered a genuine growth phase. But the nature of that growth is fundamentally different from what the industry promised in 2021.

Growth is no longer being driven by venture capital chasing scale. It’s being driven by operators achieving profitability, by government food security mandates creating demand in regions where traditional agriculture can’t compete, by declining technology costs making the unit economics work for an expanding range of crops, and by consolidation creating companies with enough scale to negotiate meaningful retail partnerships.

For anyone planning a new facility, the implications are clear: start with your market, secure your off-take, model your energy costs conservatively, and choose your crops based on margin analysis rather than aspiration. Tools like crop profitability calculators (available free at ageyetech.com) can help ground those decisions in real numbers before breaking ground. How to Calculate ROI for an Indoor Farm: A Step-by-Step Framework.

The market reports say the opportunity is real. The last five years of industry history say the execution has to be, too.